Goldman Sachs Projects 17% Surge in Uranium Demand Amid Nuclear Revival

Goldman Sachs' October 2023 Nuclear Nuggets: Global Reactor Tracker report predicts a 17% rise in uranium demand by 2030. This increase stems from new nuclear reactor projects, including large-scale plants and small modular reactors (SMRs). These developments are essential for achieving net-zero targets.

Nuclear energy is becoming a viable low-carbon alternative amid pressure to decarbonise. Goldman’s updated model reflects this shift. New reactor projects in North America and Asia highlight both large-scale and flexible SMRs, which aim to reduce capital costs and improve grid stability.

In April 2026, Bruce Power of Canada signed a memorandum with SaskPower to share reactor construction expertise. This agreement supports Saskatchewan's evaluation of its nuclear infrastructure, including SMR adoption. SaskPower seeks to diversify its energy portfolio, marking progress in nuclear technology exchange.

China is leading global capacity growth, with state-owned enterprises rapidly constructing reactors. India is also increasing its nuclear ambitions, focusing on thorium-based reactors to reduce dependence on imported uranium. Japan’s cautious restart of reactors closed after Fukushima indicates a broader acceptance of nuclear energy’s role in energy security.

Despite this positive demand outlook, supply risks persist. Goldman’s report warns of a potential uranium shortage, as current production may not meet rising demand. The spot price of uranium has already increased by 40% this year, and longer-term contracts are expected to reflect tighter conditions. Macquarie cautioned that delays in restarting mines, particularly in Kazakhstan, could exacerbate supply issues.

Geopolitical factors complicate the supply-demand scenario. Sanctions on Russian-origin uranium have prompted Western utilities to seek alternative sources. While Canada and Australia are ramping up production, the timeline for scalable output remains unclear.

SMRs are pivotal to this expansion. Their design appeals to regions with limited grid capacity or high renewable penetration. The World Nuclear Association reports over 70 SMR designs are in various development stages, with commercial deployment expected by the early 2030s. However, economic viability is a concern. Proponents argue that mass production will lower costs, while skeptics warn that regulatory challenges could hinder competitiveness.

Goldman’s revised forecast has influenced investment trends. Shares of Cameco, a leading uranium producer, rose 3.2% following the report's release, reaching a new 12-month high. Kazatomprom, Kazakhstan’s state-owned miner, plans to reassess its 2024 output targets, citing a “tightening global market.” Energy ETFs focused on uranium, like the Global X Uranium ETF, have seen significant inflows.

Concerns about the sustainability of nuclear energy's resurgence persist. Critics point to unresolved issues such as waste disposal, high initial costs, and public opposition in key markets like Germany and South Korea. Goldman acknowledges these challenges but views them as external risks, arguing that policy support for nuclear energy is likely to remain strong.

Addressing these challenges is crucial for realizing projected demand. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has called for coordinated international action to close uranium supply gaps and streamline reactor approvals. Without these efforts, the sector risks failing to provide reliable, low-carbon energy—a concern already reflected in longer-dated uranium futures.

The future of the nuclear sector's growth trajectory remains uncertain amid these complexities. If Goldman’s 17% forecast holds, it could signal a new era for nuclear energy. If not, the gap between ambition and execution may hinder its role in the global energy landscape.